← Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Regionals
Water Tera SilvieTier 2
at Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Regionals
decks
1
(1.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-4-0
overall winrate
42.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.6%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
51.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1073
· median 1073
· range 1073–1073
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
941
Q1 1161
Q3 1367
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 11.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Wind Allies | 11.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Fire Arisanna | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.3 |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Silvie decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
